Core conclusion: remain on hold, cautious attitude slightly hawkish. The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged, insisting on the expectation of "only one rate cut in 2026," while simultaneously raising economic growth and inflation forecasts, demonstrating its firm determination to combat inflation.

Key points:

1. Interest rate decision: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged.

2. Economic forecasts raised (more hawkish signal):

◦ Inflation: Significantly raised the median core PCE inflation expectations for 2026-2028, with the core PCE expectation for the end of 2026 raised from 2.5% to 2.7%.

◦ Growth: Raised GDP growth expectations.

◦ Long-term interest rates: Raised long-term federal funds rate expectations, suggesting officials believe future neutral interest rate levels will be higher.

3. Dot plot path (slow rate cuts):

◦ The median shows that officials expect only one rate cut in 2026 (25 basis points), with another cut in 2027, consistent with previous expectations (December 2025).

◦ Internal consensus weakened: Among 19 officials, there are significant divergences regarding the 2026 rate path:

▪ 7 believe rates should remain unchanged.

▪ 7 believe there should be one rate cut (forming the median).

▪ 5 support a cut of 50-100 basis points (the number of those supporting a large rate cut has decreased compared to last December).

4. Key points of the policy statement:

◦ Clearly stated that the impact of changes in the Middle East (Hormuz shipping) on the U.S. economy is "unclear," but current forecasts have largely ruled out severe impacts from an oil crisis.

◦ A key dovish signal: The statement emphasizes that no policymaker believes a rate hike is necessary in 2026.

Market instant reaction (after the decision announcement):

• Gold reported at ~4884 yuan/gram

• U.S. dollar index reported at ~99.84

• WTI crude oil reported at ~95.89 dollars/barrel

Summary: This meeting conveyed complex signals. On one hand, the Federal Reserve confirmed plans to start rate cuts this year, and no one supported a rate hike, which alleviated some market anxiety. On the other hand, the overall rise in inflation forecasts and the dot plot indicating "only one rate cut" along with internal disagreements emphasized its cautious stance against inflation, dampening market expectations for rapid and substantial rate cuts. The overall tone is more hawkish (tightening) than dovish (easing). #美联储3月议息会议