1st TP done ✅

BTCUSDT — Short Setup | Bitcoin
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The bounce from $59,800 looks increasingly exhausted. Bitcoin tapped $75,998 intraday — its highest point in six weeks — and immediately rejected, closing back below $74,500. That's a textbook liquidity grab: price sweeps highs, triggers stop orders, then reverses. The move had no follow-through.
The weekly chart tells the real story. Price is trading well below both MA(25) at $89,128 and MA(99) at $87,707, with the monthly MA(7) at $88,800 acting as a distant ceiling. Every rally since the $126,208 top has been sold. The structure is lower highs, and today's rejection at $76,000 may have just printed the next one.
Derivatives confirm the caution. The basis has been in persistent negative territory for weeks, meaning futures have consistently traded at a discount to spot — a sign of bearish sentiment among leveraged traders. The Long/Short ratio collapsed to 0.62, and top trader positioning has been rotating toward shorts since early March. Open interest is rising again, but into a rejection — new money entering at resistance is typically short positioning, not bullish accumulation.
The macro backdrop adds pressure. The Fed meeting next week could reinforce a "higher for longer" narrative, and the recent BTC rally was largely mechanical — driven by options market makers unwinding hedges, not genuine demand.
Entry: $74,500–$75,000 zone. Ideal entry on any retest of the $75,500–$76,000 area that fails to close above.
Take Profit:
TP1 — $71,500 (1D MA(7) support)
TP2 — $68,900 (2H chart base and prior consolidation)
TP3 — $65,000 (weekly structure support)
Stop Loss: $77,500 — above today's high with buffer. A clean close above invalidates the short thesis and signals genuine breakout.
Risk/reward to TP2 from $75,000 entry is approximately 2.5:1. To TP3 it extends to 4:1. Keep size modest — shorting Bitcoin in a macro recovery phase carries asymmetric risk.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
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