$BTC 24h trend analysis

Current price reference: 72,743

Macro aspect: There is currently no unilateral driving force on the macro front, and fluctuations are likely to amplify as the event window approaches; my conclusion is based on whether the key price level holds or breaks.

Multi-timeframe analysis:

4H: Consolidation (structure determines the major direction)

1H: Bearish (determines today's main range)

15m: Bearish (determines whether to follow the trend/retrace)

5m: Bearish (determines entry triggers and the authenticity of breakouts)

Today, I am only focusing on two price levels:

Upper key resistance R: 73,199 (if it holds and backtests without breaking, bullish is established)

Lower key support S: 72,270 (if it breaks and fails to backtest, bearish is established)

24h two scenarios (based on "confirmation"):

Bullish scenario:

Effectively holding above R and backtesting confirmation → Target first looks at around 73,914, if stronger, then look at around 74,575, while paying attention to pullbacks during the process.

Bearish scenario:

Effectively breaking below S and failing to backtest → Target first looks at around 71,180, if weakness continues, then look at around 70,519, with a tendency for acceleration.

Invalid conditions: If the price moves back and forth between R and S, prioritize treating it as range consolidation (do not chase highs and lows in the middle of the range).

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