This wave of market has reached a critical state.
Bitcoin is approaching 80,000, and the truly key line is the average cost of the spot ETF, which is about 79,900.
Once the price touches this range, most ETF holders basically return to break-even.
During the loss phase, the focus is on observation; as it approaches break-even, the stability of positions increases, and once it enters the profit zone, it becomes easier to form additional buying behavior.
The capital side has already shown a shift:
Before mid-February, the ETF continued to see outflows, and then it turned into net inflows, and it has been continuous.
On March 2, the single-day net inflow exceeded 3,300 BTC.
Overall holdings are also increasing:
From 1.26 million to 1.29 million, a net increase of about 26,000 in a month.
It can be understood that the funds have shifted from retreating to re-positioning.
On the technical side, the ETF cost zone overlaps with the key trend zone of the daily line.
Once the price stabilizes above this area and recovers the 100-day EMA, the market structure will shift from consolidation to trend.
Signals on the trading level are also improving:
The volume difference on major exchanges has turned from negative to positive, and selling pressure has significantly weakened.
The CVD in the futures market has rebounded from the low point to nearly 6 billion dollars, and active buying continues to strengthen.
The current overall state is:
Selling pressure is gradually being digested, and buying pressure is starting to take the lead.
The conclusion is simple—
The market has not fully entered a bull market yet, but it has already entered the preparatory stage before the launch.
The focus now is whether the price can stabilize around 80,000.$BTC