The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is approaching: digital currency stands at a crossroads

Tonight, the global financial markets are welcoming the biggest macro event of the week—the results of the Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting are about to be revealed. The market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real suspense lies in the latest dot plot and Powell's press conference tone. For digital currencies, which are highly sensitive to liquidity, tonight is destined to be turbulent.

If the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, and the dot plot shows a significant reduction in the number of rate cuts this year, the market will reprice liquidity expectations, and Bitcoin is likely to retest the support level of $68,000, leading to a potential short-term sell-off in the crypto market. Conversely, if a dovish surprise occurs—Powell hints that "inflation is under control" or expresses concerns about economic growth, improved liquidity expectations will directly drive Bitcoin to challenge the range of $76,000-$78,000. Analysts point out that as long as the average interest rate expectations shown in the dot plot are lower than the current market pricing, the dollar index will fall in response, opening up upward space for the crypto market.

It is noteworthy that the current market presents a subtle game: Bitcoin has risen for eight consecutive days, standing firm above $74,000, but the growth of open contracts is weak, indicating that the rebound foundation is not solid enough. The flow of institutional funds has become a key variable—BlackRock has recently accumulated about $600 million in Bitcoin, interpreted as an early layout for loose monetary policy. Regardless of the outcome tonight, the market is waiting for a definite answer, and the return of volatility has become a foregone conclusion. #美联储3月议息会议

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