📊 / Macro Overview

— Weekly Market Brief

The week was defined by sharp geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, driving oil prices higher, fueling inflation expectations, and pushing volatility across all asset classes.

Equities, bonds, and precious metals came under simultaneous pressure.

All major US indices closed the week in the red:

• S&P 500 -1.6% | Nasdaq -1.3%

• Dow Jones -2.0% | Russell 2000 -1.8%

Technical deterioration accelerated the selloff - death crosses on key moving averages triggered systematic strategies and CTA funds to cut risk, amplifying algorithmic selling pressure.

Oil was the primary macro driver. Brent and WTI briefly crossed $100 intraday before closing at $98. DXY rose +2.7% since March 1, reaching 100.5 - its highest level since May 2025 - benefiting from safe-haven demand and the US's position as a net energy exporter, outperforming Europe and Japan.

Rising inflation expectations pushed Fed rate cut timelines further out, weighing on gold which fell -3% to $5,040/oz. Equity rotation continued for the third consecutive week, with capital moving out of technology and growth into energy, defense, and commodities.