Upon waking up, the bears found the sky has collapsed halfway. Ethereum's long position on the Yilihua contract has gone short, while Ethereum has surged against the trend by 5%. The main force's liquidation of Yilihua's heart is still alive! It echoes the old saying: it's not about you making money, but about you not leaving the gambling table.
From an intuitive perspective, Bitcoin has returned above 72,000 points and is seeking to establish a stable support level on the hourly chart. After holding this critical position, the bulls will be facing the previous dense trading area, and will head straight for the previous high of 74,000 points. The market does not have a clear demarcation between bulls and bears; what has actually brought emotional highs in the past couple of days is not the sudden rise of Bitcoin, but rather the local explosions of altcoins and the new highs in open interest that have stimulated many people's nerves.
On-chain data shows that the open contracts in the derivatives market have returned to over 10 billion USD, indicating that many traders are starting to leverage up again. In plain language: those who were shaken out during the recent fluctuations are slowly coming back. The market's rhythm often cycles like this—nobody dares to buy in times of panic, and everyone rekindles hope during rebounds. It's no wonder Buffett lamented, "The biggest function of the market is to transfer money from those who lack patience to those who have it."
In the past 24 hours, approximately 82,000 people in the entire market were liquidated, with amounts nearing 270 million USD, and the amount of short liquidations is about twice that of longs. This means that this recent surge is essentially a very typical short squeeze. Many people saw the market weakness a few days ago and shorted early, but when the market surged, the shorts were forced to stop-loss, pushing the price further up. This kind of script is actually not uncommon in the crypto circle. The market is best at doing one thing: making the majority exit at the most uncomfortable positions.
The partial rebound of altcoins, such as #TRUMP this sudden surge of 50%, Uncle San believes will become more frequent in the subsequent trading cycles. Binance's official announcement recently targeted the delisting of altcoin projects, conducting multi-dimensional assessments of project realities for elimination. This means many projects currently have very low liquidity, but their shell market values are still acceptable. Even if they manage to avoid being delisted, necessary liquidity support will be conducted, after all, if they are truly delisted, nothing will be left.
Meanwhile, some changes are happening at the industry level. Grayscale has launched a new ETF product, focusing on the staking returns of AVAX. Previous crypto ETFs essentially just "help you buy coins," while now institutions are beginning to try incorporating "return structures" into the financial product system. This means Wall Street is slowly understanding how to play in the crypto world and is attempting to turn it into a new financial tool. If macro liquidity returns in the future, it will help push the limits of market capacity.
If you look at everything happening in the crypto market these days together, you'll find that the market presents a very subtle state: Bitcoin's price is rebounding away from Nasdaq, leverage is returning, shorts are being liquidated, whales are hoarding coins, and institutions are launching new financial products. They are rhythmically absorbing liquidity in the market, and the purpose is self-evident.
There is a classic saying on Wall Street: "Markets are born in despair, grow in skepticism, and end in madness." At this stage, it is neither despairing nor mad, but it is indeed quite anxious. So if I had to define the current market, Uncle San would prefer to understand it as: the wind hasn't come yet, but the air has started to move.
As for whether the short-term will break upward or go through another round of fluctuations, to be honest, it doesn't really matter. Executing one's position logic according to established strategies is far more valuable than constantly paying attention to slight fluctuations in the market. A reversal in the market surely won't happen that quickly. Friends who have a bit of technical understanding know that in the past two weeks, whether in the crypto market or the Nasdaq, the state has been the same: frantic in the short term and weak in the long term, with an operational difficulty of at least five stars.
On the data front, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 53.8 million USD yesterday, continuing for four trading days; Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of 72.4 million USD, continuing for three trading days. The PCE data for the evening aligned with expectations for both the annual and monthly rates. The short-term accumulation by large institutions is also decent; there are no longer expectations for interest rate cuts this year, and the liquidity crisis will be the biggest risk.
Back to the market:
Bitcoin: The strong selling pressure zone between 72000 and 74000 points has currently passed halfway. The probability of testing 74000 points after 73000 has greatly increased. Uncle San objectively believes that after obtaining liquidity for short positions, new shorts in the market will be reactivated. This is one of the reasons for suggesting to start building low-leverage short positions in batches in the selling pressure zone between 72000 and 74000 points. Next Thursday, the interest rate meeting for March will take place, and the market has already indicated no interest rate cuts. Reviewing the past five interest rate meetings where rates remained unchanged, the decline was at least 10% or more. This time, it is believed there will be no surprises. Furthermore, the inflation surge caused by skyrocketing oil prices will manifest in the macro conditions in April, marking the critical moment of life and death for the risk market. It is definitely inappropriate to chase in at this position; patience is needed for averaging down.
Ethereum: The overall trend is stronger than Bitcoin, and it has already broken through a strong resistance zone. The anticipated short-term independent strong trend in the future is not expected to last long. The on-chain whale turnover is nearing its end, with 2240 points being a strong resistance level for four hours. At that time, some bottom chips can be appropriately sold off, and similarly, part of the low-leverage short positions can be established near this position.