【March 13 Market News and Data Analysis】

1. Latest developments in the US-Iran conflict: Khamenei's son vows revenge, US Navy plans to enter the Strait of Hormuz for escort;

2. #SEC committee calls for the promotion of an innovative exemption mechanism for tokenized securities;

3. #oil crude oil prices experience a roller coaster, #TRUMP government intervenes, market focus shifts to the Strait of Hormuz;

4. Current mainstream #CEX , DEX funding rates show that market bearish sentiment has eased.

The energy market has seen severe fluctuations again, with crude oil prices nearing the $100 mark at dawn, marking the second attempt this week to break the $100 mark before falling back. Previously, the US had released strategic reserves and considered futures intervention to stabilize prices, but the CME Group warned that wartime manipulation of the derivatives market could lead to systemic risks. Iran's new leader Mujtaba made a strong statement this morning, vowing to use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip against the US and Israel, as this waterway carries one-fifth of the world's oil transport volume; although US Treasury Secretary Yellen said they would send naval escorts, it is difficult to implement before the end of the month. Predictive markets indicate a 46% chance of the Strait returning to navigation before April 30, with a 41% likelihood of oil prices breaking $120 within the month, while the extreme scenario of reaching $200 has only a 4% chance.

The crypto market has warmed up this morning, with #BTC rebounding to $72,000, and Ethereum rising to $2,148. Observing funding rates, the previously extreme bearish pattern with all negative values has significantly repaired, with mainstream cryptocurrencies' rates largely returning to neutral ranges, indicating a cooling of sentiment after short-seller capitulation. Funding rates serve as a dynamic balancing mechanism for the long and short costs of perpetual contracts; their convergence towards the 0.01% benchmark level means that the leveraged market is transitioning from panic selling to a short-term equilibrium state; however, caution is needed as the geopolitical risks of oil prices, if they continue to ferment, may exert secondary pressure tests on cryptocurrencies like BTC through both liquidity tightening and risk asset reassessment.