đ¨ THE SHORT BITCOIN ORDER IS TOO CROWDED â WHAT SIGNAL IS FORMING? đ
The funding rate of #Bitcoin has just dropped to an extremely low level.
The 30-day percentile is currently at 6% â which means 94% of the time in the past month the funding has been higher than it is now. This indicates that the derivatives market is heavily leaning towards bearish.
For nearly 2 consecutive weeks, the short side has had to pay fees to the long side, with 25 out of the last 30 days seeing negative funding.
In February alone, there have been many extreme levels:
- -0.021% on February 6
- Many times below -0.01%
In other words, the crowd is betting quite heavily on a price decline scenario.
But what is noteworthy is:
this is not a precise timing signal, as the compressed funding may last for a while. However, history shows that when positioning becomes too skewed to one side, the market rarely adjusts slowly.
Instead, âcrowded tradesâ often end with a very quick unwind â when the short side is forced to close positions.
And when that happens, a short squeeze can push the price up very quickly. đ
Source: RugaResearch
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