CPI Countdown! Tonight at 8:30 PM, decide whether you are buying the dip or just watching the show.

Brothers and sisters, at 20:30 tonight, the U.S. February CPI data will be released. This is the biggest macro event of the week, without a doubt.

The market expects the overall CPI month-on-month to be 0.3% and year-on-year to be 2.4%, with core CPI month-on-month at 0.2%. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic, forecasting that core CPI will only increase by 0.17%, believing that inflation in used cars and housing is cooling down.

But why is this particularly important? Because last week's non-farm payrolls unexpectedly weakened, and employment data let us down. Now the inflation report has become the only coordinate for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy path—if inflation falls back, easing expectations can still hold; if inflation sticks, interest rate cut expectations will directly fizzle out.

Where is Bitcoin now? It is fluctuating around 69600. The area around 72000 has accumulated a large amount of short liquidity, while the 67000-69000 range is the liquidation zone for leveraged long positions. There is volume on both sides, just waiting for the CPI to step on the gas in one direction or the other.

Da Chen's judgment:

Data meets expectations or is lower → Dollar under pressure → Risk assets rebound → BTC hits 72000

Data exceeds expectations → Inflation worries rise → Risk-off mode activates → BTC tests 67000

Tonight is not about guessing direction, but waiting for signals. Mitsubishi UFJ said it right, CPI is just an appetizer; the impact of Middle Eastern oil prices will not truly manifest until March.

Operational strategy: Before the data is released, reduce your positions. Don't gamble, wait for the right side. Whether it's a spike in shorts or a sweep of longs, the scythe is already sharpened, just waiting for you to charge in.

Remember Da Chen's words: On the night of macro data, staying alive is more important than anything else.

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