If the US CPI data at 8:30 exceeds expectations (above 2.4%), the short-term trend of ETH may not be so good! Let me say a few words in plain language:
🔥 Immediate reaction: Once the data is released, the market will likely panic. As a risk asset, ETH is very likely to fall along with US stocks. Historical data shows that during such times a drop of 2%-5% is not unexpected—after all, when interest rate hike expectations rise, funds are more willing to cling to the US dollar rather than rush into cryptocurrencies.
💸 Strong dollar suppression: CPI is high → The dollar index is likely to rise → ETH prices will be pushed down. In the past month, these two have shown a strong negative correlation, and if the dollar index breaks 105, ETH may test the support level of $2200.
⛓️ On-chain activity cooling: When panic emotions arise, everyone's willingness to trade and stake may decrease. With less on-chain trading volume, demand cannot keep up, making it harder to support prices.
🛑 Beware of stop-loss orders: Currently, ETH is hovering around $2350. If the data bombs and breaks the key support at $2300, a wave of stop-loss orders may be triggered in the range of $2250–$2280, accelerating the decline.
📌 But don't be too pessimistic! If the data is only slightly above expectations (like 2.41%), the market may quickly digest the bad news, and after the drop, there might be a rebound. The key will depend on how the Federal Reserve communicates next.~
