The U.S. dollar is behaving like a conditional safe haven amid the ongoing Iran conflict.
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According to TD Securities, investors are moving into the dollar because the U.S. economy is relatively insulated — energy independent and geographically distant from the conflict.
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However, the rally has been limited. The DXY index recently touched a 3-month high near 99.7 but is now hovering around 98.7, showing that the dollar is no longer the automatic safe-haven it once was.
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A key driver behind the recent strength is also positioning: traders were heavily short USD before the conflict, and the current move partly reflects a short squeeze correction.
📊 Bottom line:
The dollar can still act as a safe haven during geopolitical shocks, but its dominance is no longer unquestioned — market positioning and macro factors now play a bigger role.