The big one is coming for $BTC ! The truth behind institutions shouting 'collapse' while frantically increasing their positions.
The current Bitcoin market is full of contradictions: it has fallen 47% from its peak, yet it is the mildest bear market in history (previous declines have exceeded 72%). Even more strangely, this round of decline has not been accompanied by any major explosive events, more like a 'self-fulfilling crisis of confidence'.
Institutional behavior is equally divided: surveys show that 26% of institutions believe we are in a bear market, but 62% of institutions are increasing their positions or holding long during the same period, showing a 'do as I say, not as I do' attitude.
Market sentiment indicators also point to chaos: the fear index is now comparable to when FTX collapsed, but there are no substantial bearish signals; ETF funds are still flowing out, but the speed has plummeted by 94%.
No one knows the next direction, but this may be the most unique aspect of this cycle — it is not a true collapse. Historical data shows that buying and holding for a year after a decline of over 50% has a profit probability of about 90%. The mildest bear market may not have the worst outcome.
Shendan will be announced soon, and after the data is released, a new wave of market activity will begin. If anyone can't see the way ahead, raise your hand in the comments, and we will help you out!