The Iran war has entered its second week, with the energy market experiencing a wild surge followed by a sharp decline. The Nasdaq has once again fallen below a key moving average, and the external environment is still in turmoil. However, BTC has not dropped; could it be at the bottom? Can we make moves? Let me clarify things for you.

First, let's set the tone: currently, Bitcoin is merely rebounding; a reversal is still early!

What everyone is most concerned about today is BTC's performance, with the price firmly standing above $69,000. The 24-hour trading nature of the crypto market meant that the panic triggered by geopolitical conflicts was released as early as last weekend. After the negative news was fully digested, it has not followed the external fluctuations into excessive selling.

Recently, MicroStrategy added $1.3 billion to its BTC purchases, bringing its total holdings to over 738,000 coins. The continued accumulation by this giant has strengthened Bitcoin's short-term position.

Currently, as the conflict enters its second week, concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have eased, and the persistently rising oil prices have also reached a critical turning point. The G7 is considering releasing 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to alleviate crude oil supply shortages; the U.S. government is also urgently assessing major moves, including limiting crude oil exports and relaxing the Jones Act, among others. In short, Trump is on the horns of a dilemma—he wants to fight but can't do it well, and he wants to stop but can't. The geopolitical conflict cannot be resolved simply through talk in the short term.

The VIX volatility index, which measures market panic levels, has dropped to 25, indicating that the market's panic sentiment is still present, and risk appetite has not genuinely warmed up. There are obvious signs of 'washing the market'; retail investors who couldn't withstand the previous declines have already been shaken out. Whether it’s to lure more buyers or to deceive, it completely depends on the market makers' whims.

Back to the point, from a short-term perspective, the core resistance level for BTC is around $71,000. This is a previous area of dense trading, and if the price rebounds here but fails to achieve a continuous four-hour breakout, the market may stop at the strong resistance before 74,000 points. This position will then become a relative high point in the short term and will begin a new round of pullback.

In terms of operations, gradually build short positions above the 70,000 points with light leverage, placing stop-losses above the previous four-hour high point at 74,000, aiming for a large potential short zone, which offers a high cost-performance ratio.

Fans who built short positions in the 70,000 to 72,000 points range have experienced six profitable trades in the past month, with the most recent one successfully locking in a maximum profit of 8,000 points.