The #Nikkei collapses, $BTC resists

On Monday morning, Asian markets were shaken by a surge in oil prices, a direct consequence of geopolitical tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel.

The increasing correlation between the #bitcoin $BTC and US stock indices — notably the Nasdaq — has been confirmed since the arrival of spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States, but the oil crisis highlights a temporary decoupling in Asia.

Asian trading: rush for bitcoin

As stock markets plummeted, Asian investors rushed to cryptocurrencies. On Bitflyer, the leading Japanese platform, trading volume soared by 200% in just 24 hours, far surpassing Binance (+75%) and Coinbase (+112%), according to CoinGecko. South Korean platforms were no exception: Upbit saw its volumes rise by 27.1%, Bithumb by 49%. This massive movement reflects an active search for alternative safe havens in the face of extreme volatility in traditional markets.


The Nikkei 225 plunged by 6.5% at the open on Monday, while the South Korean Kospi triggered a 'circuit breaker' after a fall of 8%.

In the face of regional stock market instability, Bitcoin has established itself as an unexpected safe haven asset for many Asian investors.

See Also

  • Bitcoin and oil shaken by the Iran/US/Israel escalation: the market under pressure

Soaring oil prices, crypto in turmoil

The price of crude oil breached the symbolic threshold of $100 a barrel on the night from Sunday to Monday, peaking at $118 on the tokenized futures contract CL-USDC before correcting to $102.83. This initial surge of over 25% was fueled by a 60% drop in Iraqi production and the near paralysis of oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. On Hyperliquid, open interest on this contract reached nearly $182 million and the volume traded over 24 hours exceeded $823 million.

In direct response to this energy surge and the ensuing stock market panic in Asia, Bitcoin recorded a notable increase against several regional currencies: +2.05% against the Japanese yen and +1.64% against the Korean won during the critical opening hours of the markets. Ether (+2.3%), BNB (+1.4%), or Solana (+1.8%) also benefited from the context to advance against the US dollar.

Tight energy imports in Asia

The extreme energy dependency of Asian economies explains their vulnerability to oil shocks. South Korea consumes about 2.5 million barrels of crude oil daily and relies almost exclusively on imports — nearly 70% of which come from the Middle East. Taiwan imports about 97% of its total energy and almost all its oil. These figures highlight why these countries are more severely affected by sudden increases in crude prices than the United States or Western Europe.

In contrast, the United States is today a net exporter of oil and receives only about 4% of its imports from Saudi Arabia. According to coindesk.com, this energy independence considerably delays the immediate impact of global oil shocks on American consumers — which explains why Wall Street has fared better than Tokyo or Seoul during recent turbulence.

The G7 is attempting to calm volatility

In light of the surge in oil prices on Monday morning and the persistent nervousness in global financial markets, several G7 finance ministers have begun discussions to organize a coordinated release of strategic reserves via the International Energy Agency (IEA). Three major members are already supporting this plan to alleviate pressure on global prices. After reaching a peak of $118 on Monday morning on Hyperliquid, the CL-USDC contract fell to a more moderate level (+7% on the day) following the initial announcements regarding this possible coordinated intervention.

This attempt at calming has not been enough to completely soothe Asian markets: in any case, it is indeed towards Bitcoin that many local investors have turned in an attempt to escape the oil and stock turmoil. It remains to be seen whether this dynamic can withstand if volatility should persistently extend to Western markets or if a broader crash were to hit Wall Street — Ed Yardeni having recently raised the probability of such a scenario to 35%.

Summary

  • Trading volume on Bitflyer surged by 200% in 24 hours, surpassing Binance (+75%) and Coinbase (+112%).

  • The price of oil reached a peak of $118 a barrel on Monday, before correcting to $102.83 (+7.2% on the day).

  • The Nikkei 225 fell by 6.5% at the open on Monday, while the South Korean Kospi lost 8%.

Upcoming risk factors

The expected decision from the G7 finance ministers regarding a possible coordinated release of oil reserves via the IEA, which has not yet been confirmed, could immediately influence the volatility of oil prices, currently above $100 a barrel, and consequently the volumes and movements on Bitcoin observed during previous rises.