【In-depth Review】BTC's "Roller Coaster" Market Last Week: ETF Influx vs Geopolitical Risks, Who's in Control?

Last week (3/2 - 3/8), Bitcoin experienced a thrilling game. From a low of $65,300 to a peak of $74,000, then dropping back to around $66,000, what exactly happened behind this "roller coaster" market that first rose and then fell?

🔍 Core Logic Breakdown:

1️⃣ ETF Capital Flow: The "Strong Heartbeat" and "Emergency Brake" of Price Pulses

The price center last week completely resonated with ETF capital.

- 3/3-3/4: Daily capital inflow exceeded $450 million, with main player IBIT entering strongly, pushing the coin price to the weekly peak of $74,031.

- 3/6-3/7: Capital reversal, with daily net outflow exceeding $150 million, as profit-taking pressure directly suppressed the upward space.

2️⃣ Geopolitics vs “Digital Gold”: Has BTC Become a Safe Haven?

It has been proven that when the "real guns" sound (Middle East situation escalates), BTC’s correlation with U.S. stocks rises to 0.74. It behaves more like a high Beta risk asset rather than a safe-haven asset. During panic periods, capital still prefers the U.S. dollar and physical gold.

3️⃣ Technical Aspects: Still Trapped in a "Bear Flag"?

Currently, BTC is still operating within the consolidation range of $62,300 - $72,000.

- Resistance Level: $72,000 is currently the hardest nut to crack.

- Lifeline: If $62,300 is broken, the retracement target may point to $55k-$50k.

📊 Market Outlook:

The market is currently in a state of "extreme fear" (index 24). Before the situation in the conflict is clarified and ETF capital flow resumes, one should avoid blindly chasing highs. Those who are cautious can pay attention to the support effectiveness at $62,300, waiting for a breakout signal at $72,000.

💬 What do you think? Will BTC return to $70k next week or dive into the abyss? See you in the comments!

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