Iran's missile stock is running low.
It's not that there's no inventory, it's that there are no launch platforms.
After four days of bombing by the US and Israel, Iran's missile launch count dropped from 350 to 50. This is not a tactical adjustment; it's a capacity that has been destroyed.
First, the inventory is depleted.
Before the war, Iran had approximately 1,700 to 2,100 ballistic missiles in stock. Those that can hit Israel and US bases are about 1,000 to 1,200.
In four days, 695 ballistic missiles were launched. At this rate, the inventory can last at most a week.
Second, half of the launch vehicles have been destroyed.
The Israeli military claims to have destroyed about 300 of Iran's missile launchers. Iran has a total of 400 to 600 mobile launch platforms. Half are gone.
Having missiles but no vehicles to launch them is equivalent to zero.
Third, the production lines have also been bombed.
Iran's missile factories have a monthly production capacity of 150 to 200 missiles, which can expand to 450 during wartime.
However, US and Israeli B-2 bombers specifically target underground missile factories. Satellite photos show many missile facilities have been destroyed.
Even if produced, they cannot be transported. The US and Israel control the airspace, making transport lines sitting ducks.
Fourth, foreign aid is just a pipe dream.
Some say Russia has provided assistance. Upon checking, that was a contract signed in December 2025 for 500 million euros to buy 500 sets of "Willow" portable air defense missiles. Delivery is planned between 2027 and 2029.
Distant water cannot quench near fire. This is not a ballistic missile; it's an air defense missile. It doesn't help to replenish offensive capabilities.
The conclusion is simple:
Iran's missile retaliation has reached its limit. The inventory is depleted, launch platforms have been destroyed, production cannot keep up, and foreign aid is nowhere in sight.
In the coming days, if the US and Israel continue to bomb the remaining launch vehicles and factories, Iran's missile threat will basically be eliminated.
This war is a confrontation of industrial capacity and systems. Iran's foundation cannot withstand such high-intensity consumption.