đ Shock from Non-Farm Payrolls: When "Soft Landing" Becomes "Free Fall"
No longer a forecast, recession is knocking at the door:
Jobs disappearing: The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs, unemployment surged to 4.4% (exceeding all predictions).
The market turns red: Small Cap 2000 plummeted the most (-2.03%), followed by Nasdaq and S&P 500.
âď¸ The FED's Dilemma
The U.S. government is caught in a "clamp":
Wanting to save jobs: Must cut interest rates quickly.
Oil barrier: Middle Eastern conflicts drive energy prices high, causing inflation. If interest rates are cut now, inflation will explode uncontrollably.
đŽ Future outlook: 3 main scenarios
Ending the dream of "Soft Landing": The U.S. economy is highly likely to fall into Stagflation (Stagnation Inflation) â both recession and high prices.
Safe-haven money: Investors will flee from technology/risky stocks to seek Gold and Bonds.
Political pressure: The government must intervene strongly in geopolitics to cool down oil prices, or risk losing complete control before the election.
Advice: Don't rush to catch the bottom when the "knife is falling" hasn't hit the ground. Prioritize holding cash and observing the next support level of S&P 500.