Last night's non-farm data was favorable, but the result initially dropped as a courtesy
Data appearance: Employment numbers unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 (expected to be positive), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.
Conventional interpretation: The job market is cooling -> The economy needs stimulus -> Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are rising.
Actual market feedback: Traders raised the probability of a rate cut in June from 35% to about 50%. This is favorable for risk assets.
Key turning point - the data's "stagflation":
The data did not immediately boost Bitcoin, possibly due to escalating conflicts, causing oil to soar by 17%.
An extremely twisted combination: Economic slowdown (poor jobs) + Inflation rising (oil prices skyrocketing). The market instantly shifted from trading "rate cuts" to trading "stagflation." In this environment, expectations for rate cuts may be pushed back.
Now #btc has returned to a bottom that needs to be validated, let's see if this drop clears the leverage or if it's truly a weak dead cat bounce. 🫓 The observation position is still seventy-two thousand