1. Anatomy of a drop
When the unemployment data was released at 17:30 (-92,000), Bitcoin initially jumped up, but then sharply plummeted to $68,400 - $68,500.
Why was this necessary? At the level of $70,000, a huge amount of stop-losses from small traders accumulated. Large players (whales) needed to go down to buy these coins cheaply
Fact: Right before your eyes, the price touched $68,444 and began to "stall". This is the 0.236 zone according to Fibonacci and a strong support that has held for several days.
Technical nuance: On the 4-hour chart, the $69,000 level is the upper boundary of the "converging triangle". A breakout above this mark is a direct signal for a move towards $72,500 and beyond.
Liquidations: The drop to $68,444 has already cleared the market of "weak hands". Now, there is less "fuel" for the drop, and more buyers waiting for a pullback.
Technical reversal: Bitcoin touched $68,444 and began to "drill" this level. This is not a random number. This is the liquidation zone for those who entered on the breakout of $70k. Right now, there is a struggle to return to $69,000. If the price exceeds this threshold and stays there for at least 15-20 minutes, it means the "bottom" of the local correction has been passed.
Bear trap: This entire drop over the last hour looks like liquidity gathering. Traders saw bad unemployment numbers and started shorting, while large players simply placed "buckets" at the $68,500 level.
3. The logic "Bad in the US = Good for $BTC " in action
While the price is hitting the $68,500 level, large funds have already begun recalculating their strategies:
Inflation and rates: The collapse of the US labor market makes investors believe that the Fed will surrender. Once the panic from the "bad numbers" subsides (this usually takes 1-2 hours after the US session opens), the buying phase will begin.
About Kevin Warsh and the printing press
There is an important nuance that is currently being discussed in the corridors:
Warsh's method: He is indeed not a fan of simply printing money. His strategy is "low rates in exchange for reforms". He believes that through AI, productivity will increase, allowing for lower rates without igniting inflation.
Coercion to action: Today's unemployment data (-92,000) may force even a conservative like Warsh (when he takes office), or the current Fed leadership, to act more aggressively. When the labor market is "crashing", personal beliefs give way to saving the banking system.
Status: Bitcoin is currently trading as
"anti-dollar". The worse the American economy performs, the more valuable a hard asset with limited issuance becomes.