I am a small retail investor in Opinion, and under this large-scale clawback situation, my funds have not been clawed back. This article will share a formula on how to avoid being clawed back, which is effective for most points projects.
First, we must admit that Opinion is a stingy beast project. Originally shining under the investment halo of Binance, in terms of depth and trading volume, apart from Polymarket, it was one of the best prediction markets compared to others during the same period. But unexpectedly, a good hand has been ruined.
I haven't participated in the KOL round and have no vested interest in Opinion. In the past two months, I've written a lot about Opinion's strategies and have been testing score weights every week. I spend at least 10 hours a day manually searching for pools. I have reduced the cost of points from an initial average of about $30 to around $1. I have previously reminded brothers with high costs not to play Opinion blindly. Although my funds have not been clawed back, my physical and mental health has suffered greatly.
The key to avoiding being penalized lies in calculating the cost of points. This formula is very important and applies to most point projects.
✳️Point cost = Estimated FDV X Airdrop share ÷ Airdrop points
For instance, looking back, the point cost for Opinion is = 500 million X 3% ÷ 1.8 million = 8 dollars. If your cost per point is above 8 dollars, it indicates being penalized. Many friends have a point cost around 20 dollars. Therefore, before engaging in each point project, you must apply this formula to have an understanding.
✳️Estimated FDV:
Here are two recommended methods. One is to go to prediction markets like polymarket to find, as popular tokens generally have FDV estimates. For example, the FDV before Opinion's token launch was around 500 million. The other is to look horizontally for already launched similar tokens; for instance, when accumulating points for Opinion, you can look for limitless. The current FDV of limitless is 150 million. This way, you can get a rough range of FDV.
✳️Airdrop share:
Some projects will state this in their official documentation. Some will only announce it before the airdrop. In the past two years, common project airdrop shares are around 10%. The stingy ones are around 5%. Extremely stingy ones, like Opinion, are around 1-3%.
✳️Airdrop points:
This is generally found in the official documentation of the project party. For example, Opinion releases 100,000 points weekly. As of the snapshot on March 1, the total points are around 1.8 million. Remember, the longer the time drags on, the more disadvantageous it is for those seeking to accumulate points. The best time for points is 3-6 months.
Summary: Most point projects can use this formula to calculate the cost of points. The cost of points is a rough range, not an exact number, but it can give you an idea to avoid being penalized.
