I judge: what should be done now is not to bet on the direction, but to first cage the pullback. I recall that waterfall line on May 19, 2021, where many people did not misread the trend, but rather the leverage and stop-loss failed together; profits had not yet arrived, and the principal was first taken away by history.
Compared to now, the similarity is that when emotions run high, it is easy to chase the peaks; the difference is that the structure is more "blunt": key levels are pulled back and forth, as if forcing traders to make mistakes. There are two verifiable pieces of evidence: first, the volume does not keep up with the breakout; if the volume increase is not sustained, it is easy to have a false breakout; second, the MACD is repeatedly entangled near the zero axis, indicating that the trend advantage is not clear, and forcing long or short positions is a gamble.
Livermore said, "First, preserve the principal." The strategy should be clearly defined with trigger conditions: consider going long only if $ETH stabilizes at key levels with increased volume and MACD crosses above and spreads; consider going short only if it breaks below previous lows and the volume weakens; watch during other times, keep stop-loss fixed, better to miss out than to expand losses. History does not repeat, but it always punishes the same kind of arrogance.
—— Jesse Livermore
#MACD #Key Levels #Pullback Control #Conditional Trading #Volume Verification #风险提示
*The above is merely a personal opinion and not investment advice
