🚨 Global Energy Market Alert: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may trigger a historic crude oil supply shortage

JPMorgan's latest report issues a stern warning: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the global energy supply chain will face severe challenges, potentially marking one of the largest sudden supply loss events in modern markets.

The Strait of Hormuz controls about one-fifth of the global oil and liquefied natural gas transport arteries. Under the current situation, the market's buffer capacity is far more fragile than imagined.

📊 Key timelines and data insights provided by JPMorgan:

Extremely short export buffer period: The buffer periods for Iraq and Kuwait are only about 3 days and 14 days respectively; once depleted, they will have to cease exports through the strait and be forced to cut production.

The scale of production cuts is deteriorating exponentially: By the 8th day of the conflict, potential oil supply reductions could reach 3.3 million barrels per day; by the 18th day, it could soar to 4.7 million barrels per day.

Maximum pressure limit is only 25 days: The land facilities of the seven major oil-producing countries in the Middle East (which can accommodate about 22 days of production) and about 60 idle oil tankers (which can hold about 3-4 days of production) can only absorb approximately 25 days of stranded production. Once this limit is exceeded, storage facilities will be under severe pressure, forcing oil-producing countries to halt production entirely.

Under normal circumstances, about 16 million barrels of crude oil pass through this vital artery daily, but data from February 28 shows that this figure has plummeted to about 4 million barrels, only one-quarter of the normal volume.

In the face of Iran's strong statement that it will "fire on any ships attempting to pass," risk aversion in the energy market is sharply increasing. Colleagues in the industry, how do you assess the far-reaching impact of this geopolitical crisis on oil prices, bulk commodities, and global inflation this year? Feel free to share your insights in the comments.

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