Gold right now is like a drunk man at a crossroads, swaying but just won't fall down!
Brothers, are we bottom fishing or chasing shorts? This might be the hardest question to answer in the circle today!
I just finished watching the market and noticed an interesting phenomenon: XAU at this position, both bulls and bears are almost tearing each other's pants off, but neither can hold the other down. There's an old saying in our circle—how long is horizontal, how high is vertical. This trend is just holding back for a big move!
Let's talk about today's fundamentals first; it's too exciting!
Something has kicked off again in the Middle East! The latest news is that a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian military ship near Sri Lanka, and Iran has directly blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has made strong statements, saying he is confident in U.S. military actions. This war has caused oil prices to soar, and gold has naturally become a hot commodity—today, the Asian session gold price directly surged nearly $50, currently trading in the range of $5170-$5190 per ounce.
But here comes the key point! The tariff stick is swinging again—U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen just hinted that the general tariff of 10% will be raised to 15%, and it might take effect this week. Once tariffs increase, inflation expectations rise, and gold's anti-inflation property is activated again.
There is also a detail—the U.S. dollar index has fallen about 0.4% in the past two days. Brothers remember this formula: when the dollar falls, gold rises, it's a hard rule!
Let's look at the position data:
The latest data shows that the long position ratio of spot gold XAU/USD is as high as 86%! What does this mean? Among 10 people in the market, 8.6 are bullish. But there is a pitfall here—the net long position has decreased from yesterday. What does this indicate? It indicates that although most people still hold long positions, some smart money is quietly withdrawing. It's like a crowd squeezing at the door, with some wanting to go out and others wanting to come in; the door is only so wide, and whoever squeezes out first wins.
The technical aspect is the main event today!
Let's go back to the daily candlestick chart. The two MACD lines are almost kissing each other. This is called 'convergence' in the circle, which is a precursor to a trend change!
The moving average system is even more interesting—prices are currently being pressed by the 60-day line, but still stand above the 5-day and 10-day lines. Isn't this like being held down by someone while still kicking with the legs? The short-term support is around 5130, and if it breaks, the next support is the previous lows of 5080 or even 5007; if it can break through 5210, then the rebound space opens up.
In terms of trading volume, the small bearish candle on February 28 has noticeably shrunk compared to the previous days. This indicates that the momentum of the selling has weakened. In industry terminology, this is called 'shrinking volume stopping the decline,' which is a prelude to a rebound.
Gao Ge's personal opinion:
At this position, my view is: short-term looks for a rebound, medium-term looks for fluctuations, and long-term remains bullish.
Why? Because gold has risen about 20% this year, and reached a historic high of $5595 in January. Such a large increase makes a correction very normal. But the big logic hasn't changed—war hasn't stopped, tariffs are increasing, inflation is still present, and the hard logic of gold remains.
Finally, here are two operational suggestions for my brothers:
If you are a conservative type—wait! Wait until the price stabilizes above 5210 before entering long, or wait for a pullback confirmation after breaking 5130 before entering short. Going in now is just gambling.
If you are a short-term player—buy high and sell low in the 5130-5210 range, but don't exceed 10% in position, and you must set a stop-loss! Once this position breaks, the volatility will be very intense.
Remember what I often say: manage your stop-loss well, live long to earn more!
I am Gao Ge, top technical support, serving only those with vision and ambition!
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普15%全球关税将于本周生效 #中东局势升级
