Let's talk about BTC's recent rebound

First, let's discuss the nature of this market trend

This rebound from 60,000 dollars can be described as a pullback after the drop from 98,000.

Breaking it down, it goes in three phases:

First phase: from 60,000 to 72,271

Second phase: retracing to 62,510

Third phase: from 62,510 to the present

Now many people believe that 62,510 or 63,030 might be the bottom, and that we are about to start a mid-term uptrend. But to be honest, this idea is a bit naive: from a probability perspective, the likelihood of this happening is low.

So how will it move next?

Where did the bulls hold their ground?

Looking back at this drop, from January 31 to February 3, the bulls defended the range of 75,800 to 76,900 for four days, which was the only decent resistance during the entire drop (although it didn't hold for long). Other than that, there was basically a continuous decline without much support.

Where are the key levels?

I measured with Fibonacci:

If the second phase's increase is equal to the first phase, the target level is 74,778.

The 0.382 retracement level of the entire drop is 74,525.

So the level of 74,778 is quite crucial; only by breaking through here can we say that the market is getting stronger. Otherwise, it's still a weak rebound.

In simple terms:

This wave is just a rebound in a downtrend; to confirm a stronger trend? We need to surpass 74,778 first. As for what constitutes a mid-term bottom, it doesn't seem likely at this point, so don't think too much about it. #BTC $BTC $ETH #