๐ข๏ธ 1. OIL (Brent Crude)
๐ Bullish Moment
Probability: 60%
Reason: Geopolitical tensions + supply fear.
Max Bullish Target: $100 โ $108 per barrel
๐ Bearish Moment
Probability: 40%
Reason: Diplomatic cooling, demand slowdown.
Max Bearish Target: $80 โ $84 per barrel
๐ฅ 2. GOLD (Gold)
๐ Bullish Moment
Probability: 70%
Reason: Safe-haven flow when equities fall.
Max Bullish Target: $2,380 โ $2,450 per oz
๐ Bearish Moment
Probability: 30%
Reason: If bond yields rise suddenly.
Max Bearish Target: $2,150 โ $2,180 per oz
๐งพ 3. BONDS (Yields)
(US Treasury Bonds)
๐ Bullish for Bonds (Yields Down)
Probability: 55%
Reason: Flight to safety.
10-Year Yield Bearish Target (down): 3.55% โ 3.75%
๐ Bearish for Bonds (Yields Up)
Probability: 45%
Reason: Inflation pressure from oil.
10-Year Yield Bullish Target (up): 4.20% โ 4.35%
๐ช 4. CRYPTO
(Bitcoin & Ethereum)
๐ Bullish Moment
Probability: 50%
BTC Target: $67,000 โ $72,000
ETH Target: $3,200 โ $3,450
๐ Bearish Moment
Probability: 50%
BTC Target: $52,000 โ $56,000
ETH Target: $2,600 โ $2,750
Crypto is 50/50 because war + liquidity changes hit it hardest.
๐ 5. GLOBAL STOCKS
(MSCI World Index)
๐ Bullish Moment
Probability: 35%
Target: +1% to +3% recovery
Reason: Temporary relief rallies & dip buying.
๐ Bearish Moment
Probability: 65%
Target: -3% to -6%
Reason: Oil inflation + geopolitical escalation.
