#usisraelstrikeiran CÚ HORMUZ AND MA200: WHICH WAY IS THE MARKET AT A CROSSROADS?

1️⃣ Hormuz is blocked – a global energy shock

The sharp decline in ship traffic through the Hormuz Strait has caused Brent to rise by more than 10%. This shipping route accounts for about 20% of global oil supply. As the risk of disruption increases, the market immediately re-prices inflation and logistics costs. This is a supply shock, not a purely financial event.

2️⃣ Pressure on risk assets

Rising oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations. This reduces the likelihood of the Fed easing quickly. The result: stocks adjust, the USD strengthens, and risk assets like crypto face short-term selling pressure.

3️⃣ Why hasn't Bitcoin collapsed?

BTC has fallen but is not in a state of panic. There has not been a widespread liquidation wave, and ETFs have not seen significant outflows. This is a typical risk-off reaction, not a systemic crisis.

4️⃣ MA200 – historical reference zone

In the cycles of 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, the 200-week moving average has often played the role of a structural bottom. This is the area where long-term investors begin to accumulate again.

5️⃣ Will the 2026 scenario repeat history?

If tensions are only short-term, BTC may test MA200 and then recover. If the conflict drags on and inflation resurges, the market may sideway for a longer period.

6️⃣ Strategic conclusion

Hormuz is a short-to-medium term variable. The new global liquidity cycle will determine the long-term trend. MA200 does not guarantee a bottom, but it is often an attractive risk-reward zone for patient investors.