On March 3, 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rollercoaster ride under the influence of multiple factors. Stimulated by the positive news of U.S. President Trump announcing that Bitcoin and Ethereum would be included as core assets in the national cryptocurrency strategy reserves, the market surged strongly in the early hours, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $70,000 and Ethereum climbing above $2,080. However, as the positive news was digested by the market, macro pressures emerged due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East (U.S.-Iran conflict) and delayed expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant market correction in the afternoon. Bitcoin fell below $67,000, and Ethereum dropped below $2,000. Overall, the market displayed a pattern of upward movements being met with resistance and intensified long-short battles, with institutional funds seeing some inflow but retail participation declining, raising doubts about the sustainability of short-term rebounds.
1. Market Trend Review and Analysis
Core Driving Factors: Today's market's core catalyst is former U.S. President Trump's statement on the "crypto war reserve" policy, which greatly boosted market confidence and prompted capital inflow. However, this positive news lacks specific execution details and requires Congressional approval, raising questions about its sustainability. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East (Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz) have pushed up the prices of traditional safe-haven assets like gold and oil, causing some funds to flow out of the cryptocurrency market and exacerbating the afternoon pullback.
Price Performance: Bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $70,100 in the early morning and then fell to a low of $66,351 in the afternoon, currently trading around $66,600, with the 24-hour increase narrowing. Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, reaching a high of $2,090 before pulling back, hitting a low of $1,939, and currently hovering around $1,950. The total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours exceeded $330 million, with over 100,000 people liquidated, resulting in significant losses for short positions.
Capital and Sentiment: The market has shown positive signals, as last week cryptocurrency investment products ended five consecutive weeks of net capital outflow, recording about $1 billion in net inflow, of which Bitcoin-related products accounted for $881 million. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF also recorded over $1 billion in net inflow in the past three trading days. The market fear and greed index has risen to 52, entering the neutral zone, indicating that market sentiment has recovered from extreme fear but has not yet entered a state of greed.
Macro and Technical Aspects: Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been pushed back to July 2026, with a high interest rate environment continuing to suppress risk assets. Technically, Bitcoin has encountered strong resistance near the $70,000 integer level and the 20-day moving average (around $69,500), with the RSI indicator nearing the overbought zone, indicating a need for a correction. Key support below is in the $67,500-$68,000 area; if broken, it could revert to a range of $65,000-$70,000. Ethereum's structure is relatively weaker, needing to break through $2,150 to reverse the downtrend, currently facing a test at the $2,000 level.
2. Market Outlook and Trading Strategy
The current market is in a "news-driven" oscillating pattern. The positive impact of Trump's policy has been digested in the short term, and market focus has shifted to the cryptocurrency summit at the White House on March 7. Geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve monetary policy remain core macro variables affecting market direction.
Recommended Trading Strategy (for reference only, not investment advice):
Overall Idea: Given the market's resistance at high levels and the technical correction pressure, it is recommended to adopt "a cautious strategy of mainly short positions, with some long positions, light trading, and strict stop-loss". Avoid chasing highs near key resistance levels, and patiently wait for a pullback to support or a clear breakout signal.
Bitcoin (BTC) Trading Reference:
Short Opportunity: If the price rebounds to the range of $69,500-$70,000 and faces pressure to fall back, consider light short positions, with a stop-loss set above $70,500, targeting $68,500 and $67,500.
Long Opportunity: If the price falls back to$67,500and stabilizes nearby, or further pulls back to$66,000-$66,500strong support area without breaking, consider light long positions, with a stop-loss set below $65,500, targeting $68,500 and $69,000.
Ethereum (ETH) Trading Reference:
Short Opportunity: If the price rebounds to the resistance area of $2,050-$2,100 and faces pressure, consider light short positions, with a stop-loss set above $2,120, targeting $2,000 and $1,950.
Long Opportunity: If the price pulls back to$1,950-$2,000support area and stabilizes, consider light long positions, with a stop-loss set below $1,900, targeting $2,050 and $2,080.
Risk Warning:
Cryptocurrency volatility is extremely high, and this rebound is mainly event-driven, with its sustainability pending observation, and it is not a trend reversal.
Middle Eastern situations, statements from Federal Reserve officials, and other news factors may trigger market volatility at any time, requiring close attention.
There is a clear ban on illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies within the country, and related transactions are not protected by law. Investors should be aware of compliance risks.
Contract trading is a high-risk activity; it is essential to strictly control positions (it is recommended that leverage not exceed three times) and set stop-losses, avoiding holding positions.
