March 3 review of $BTC 3: Deep V rebound under geopolitical conflict, how to view the short term?
Over the weekend, the situation between the US and Iran escalated, and news of changes within Iranian leadership triggered risk-averse sentiment, leading to panic selling in the market, with Bitcoin dropping to around $63,000 at its lowest, and over $300 million in liquidations in 24 hours. However, it quickly recovered, and the current price has risen to around the $68,000 range.
According to CoinMarketCap/CoinGecko, the fluctuation is approximately between $67,900 and $68,900, with a 24-hour increase of about 2-4%.
Key observation points: Technically, the rebound from the $63k low has stabilized at the $65,000-$66,000 support, which is the lower edge of the recent range. However, the psychological barrier at $70,000 and previous high resistance remains strong, with MACD momentum weakening, and RSI approaching the midpoint, indicating continued volatility in the short term. On-chain data shows that the net outflow from exchanges has slowed, and there has been no large-scale movement in holdings from whales, with similar indicators from Glassnode showing signs of accumulation.
Macro impact: Oil prices are rising, with Brent up 2-6% at one point, and US/Asian stock markets under pressure, but Bitcoin has performed relatively better than Nasdaq during certain periods. Spot gold increased by 1% to $5,378/ounce, and the narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold is being re-discussed.
Institutional trends: Tom Lee (Fundstrat/BitMine) has stated that he expects the stock market to rise in March, with BTC/ETH leading the way; institutions like Strategy continue to buy, accumulating over 720,000 coins. However, overall liquidity is weak, financing rates are low, and implied volatility is being reset.
Summary: The market currently appears to be digesting the panic selling caused by geopolitical black swan events and has quickly repaired, indicating that there is some support at the bottom. However, the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rates, the future in the Middle East, and sentiment in the US stock market remain high, making high volatility likely to continue in the short term. It’s advisable to watch more and act less, and pay attention to whether it can effectively break through the $69,000-$70,000 range or retest the $65,000 support.
For more information, please check the chat room; the above is just a personal observation and data organization. DYOR.