Macroeconomic Conditions for a Bull Market in Commodities:

1. Geopolitical Conflicts Leading to Supply Shocks

The Strait of Hormuz affects 20% of global oil shipping, 20% of LPG trade, and 9% of aluminum capacity.

2. Loose Monetary Liquidity

The Federal Reserve is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, but the backdrop is insufficient market liquidity. Future observation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is necessary.

3. Rigid Growth in New Demand

AI computing centers, grid upgrades, new energy vehicles.

4. Low Elasticity of Inventory and Capacity

Global mining companies' capital expenditures have continued to shrink since the assessment in 2011, coupled with insufficient long-term investment and ESG constraints, resulting in limited new capacity.