Yesterday, still crying out in the 'graveyard' at 1837, today someone is shouting 'the bull market is back' at the peak of 2050 — the crypto circle's face changes faster than the K-line.
Dear friends, I am the captain. Today we won't talk about the abstract, let's delve into the secrets behind ETH's 'roller coaster' K-line.
Yesterday, when the situation in the Middle East came out, the market directly dealt us a heavy blow, ETH plunged to 1837 in one go, with 150,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, and 494 million dollars vanished into thin air. I was shouting in the group at that time, this is a typical 'black swan washout', don’t panic and cut losses, sure enough, today the bulls took advantage of the sentiment to restore and pulled the price back above 2000.
But if you think this means a reversal, then you are too naive. From a technical perspective, ETH is currently stuck in a very awkward position — the range of 2000-2030 is the dense trading area before yesterday's sharp decline, and it's also the favorite 'ambush point' for bears. If you look at the 4-hour chart, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is around 1979, and the current price is just stepping on it, with the RSI at 58, and the KDJ's J value almost touching 100. It's like a person who has run 10 kilometers but is still trying to sprint; it's no surprise if their legs give out.
Looking at the news, the U.S. January PPI exceeded expectations, directly pushing the interest rate cut expectations to July, with the big stick of high rates still looming overhead, and capital is simply afraid to enter the market on a large scale. The tense situation in the Middle East has not fully eased either; when risk aversion arises, funds will still flow into gold and oil, leaving the crypto market as a 'sacrificial pawn.'
So my view is very clear: today’s rebound is more of a technical recovery rather than a trend reversal. At the 2030 position, I will not hesitate to open a short position with a light load, placing the stop loss above 2050, and initially targeting 1950. This level has been validated as a support level multiple times before; once it effectively breaks down, the bears can push the price down to the lower edge of the Bollinger Band at 1840.
Yesterday a fan messaged me, saying they bottomed at 1900, and when it rose to 2000 today, they ran away, making a 10-point profit. I told him, this is what a smart person does. In this market, don't be greedy, don't bet on one side; a 'V-shaped reversal' like today is the easiest to get people high, thinking they are a stock god, only to be buried on the mountaintop in the next second.
Closing hook: Remember, the captain’s ship only carries those who understand the wind and waves. The Fed's speech tomorrow morning is the real big test. Will it continue to oscillate within the range, or will it break down directly? I will send my operational plan to the fan group at the first opportunity; only by keeping up with my rhythm can one survive in this cruel market.
Will you choose to be lost in the temptation of 2030, or wait under the support of 1950? Tell me your choice in the comments section, and the captain will personally reply.
Twelve years in the financial world, an exclusive secret of a pioneer in the crypto space: insight into the market, steady progress. Follow the Tianshi Mansion to learn how to steadily increase value; risks and opportunities coexist in investment, and blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto world!