TLDR: As shown in the figure.
In the past year, if you continuously observe the narrative migration of crypto, you will find that sector rotation is still ongoing, e.g., AI memes, L2, DePIN, but there seems to be only one exception that continuously generates real trading behavior—the prediction market.
But the growth logic of the prediction market seems to be changing.
1. The first stage of the prediction market: 'event betting'.
The prediction market will explode in 2024, essentially driven by the U.S. election and macro uncertainties.
Platforms represented by Polymarket have proven that on-chain prediction markets can carry real funds.
But because its essence is still 'event betting', the early liquidity of the prediction market is highly concentrated in politics and sports.
The market exists, but the coverage is extremely narrow.
The consequence of this is: once the core event ends (e.g., the U.S. election with Trump's victory), trading activity significantly declines.
Many people understand this as a cycle, but in reality, it is not.
2. What the prediction market really lacks has never been users.
After the explosion of the prediction market, many discussions around prediction market projects like to compare 'user numbers and TVL'.
But these indicators have limited significance in the prediction market (similar to L2's false prosperity).
What truly determines the long-term nature of the market is 'whether there exists a continuous, tradable information flow'.
Why does the financial market always have liquidity?—Because information is being generated every day.
The prediction market has a long-term dependence on 'big events', which is a structural bottleneck.
Recently, I reviewed some Dune panels, and a trend is obvious:
The topic structure of the prediction market is changing.
In the early days, the crypto-related market share exceeded 70%, but now it is gradually being divided into: Pre-TGE, sports, esports, commercial culture, etc.
This data is actually very important, because it means: the prediction market is starting to shift from 'event-driven' to 'information-driven'.
And in fields with higher information density, liquidity is more stable.
From the Dune data in the above figure, it can also be seen that apart from politics and crypto.
3. Esports may be the most underestimated increment in the prediction market.
However, in terms of trading structure, esports has several special attributes:
High-frequency events.
Real-time win rate changes.
Global audience base.
Strong Asian participation.
More critically: esports has in-play trading demand, which is also known as the ultimate stress test for prediction markets.
For example, a League of Legends match between SKT and EDG:
Changes in win rates during the BP stage.
A turnaround point that suddenly comes during a team battle.
Real-time changes in economic differences.
This fast pace leads to repricing every 30 seconds.
Traditional prediction markets usually experience: price quotes stopping, spread explosions, or liquidity disappearing in such an environment.
Thus, the esports track often tests the capabilities of prediction markets the most. After reviewing multiple data from Dune, I compared which prediction market has the best liquidity, order depth, and buy-sell spread—it's Opinion.
And in esports, Pre-TGE, and the Asian macro track, Opinion even significantly outperforms Polymarket.
Opinion has also launched an esports section for this... After two weeks of launch, esports contributed about 5% of the fees and trading volume.
The In-Play esports market of Opinion can continuously transact and run a 'real-time information market', demonstrating.
✅ There are real-time judges in the market.
✅ Arbitrageurs are continuously correcting prices.
✅ Consensus is forming dynamically.
It was also at this stage that I first started to pay attention to Opinion.
4. Asian related market liquidity is rising.
Because the prediction market has always been considered a 'product dominated by Europe and America'.
The horse racing of various prediction markets also made me think about the product manager's old job:
If I were the PM of these prediction markets, what would I do? Here are some reference thoughts:
The area with the highest information density is not in Europe and America.
Asian users are more focused on fragmented events: esports, Pre-TGE (project expectations).
Summary: Asian market high frequency + fragmentation + high emotional density + different regional cultures need prediction markets that suit their own tone.
We do not let key politics, but we can build characteristic xxism prediction markets to rebuild the Eastern information market.
For example, esports has a strong grassroots foundation in the East, so focus on this to create your own differentiated strengths, and the East remains strong!
Because similar paths have occurred in history:
Binance surpasses early European and American exchanges.
ByteDance reconstructs global content distribution.
And take a look at Polymarket and Kalshi, essentially competing like opening a grocery store in New York.
After verifying the data, it turns out that this is also the path that Opinion is currently taking; behind OP, there must be high-level guidance!
5. In response, the competition for the second stage of the prediction market has already begun.
Summarizing the above changes, the prediction market, apart from gradually changing to a 'news tool for voting with real money' as we mentioned last time,
https://x.com/ScarlettWeb3/status/2006159213706555857
(2026 prediction market focus summary essence)
The first stage of the prediction market.
Big event driven.
Betting attributes.
Euro-American center.
The second stage is emerging.
High-frequency information flow.
Hedge and arbitrage demand.
Regional liquidity center.
At this time, the logic of competition has changed; it is no longer who makes the prediction market first.
And who can become: the price discovery center for a certain type of information.
6. The prediction market is not just PM—Opinion.
These factors combined make it more like an experiment: whether the prediction market can move out of the 'single Euro-American narrative'.
If this direction is established, the prediction market will not have only one global center.
And it will appear:
U.S. consensus market.
Asian information market.
Why have I started to continuously observe Opinion now, not because it has the largest trading volume.
Rather, its product thinking resonates with mine, and it appears in a position of:
Asian event liquidity rising phase (the second stage appears).
The East is beginning to explore its own prediction market track (esports trading is becoming popular).
Promoting compliance with mainstream exchanges (the listing has been completed).
Moreover, the prediction market is one of the few strong compliance tracks; very few projects can be listed on mainstream CEX.
But Opinion has entered the Coinbase listing roadmap (Upbit's Korean won market follows Coinbase's listing).
Listing on Binance pre-contracts (most projects on BN pre-contract will eventually enter spot trading).
OPN / USDT 2 days: Ranked 16th in the overall contract trading volume, far exceeding multiple popular projects at the same time.
Wishing OPN can achieve a grand slam, while the West does not shine, the East shines.
Just like things that have happened in the history of exchanges.
Conclusion.
I am not sure whether the prediction market will ultimately become the core track of the next round of crypto.
But one thing is certain:
When the prediction market starts to shift from 'betting once on the outcome' to 'continuously trading information'.
The core of competition is no longer who launches the product first, but who can carry the continuously generated liquidity of consensus.
If the first stage belongs to U.S. politics and macro events.
So the second stage is likely to belong to: high-frequency, fragmented, and higher emotional density Asian information environment.
Can the prediction market have more than one world center?
If the answer is affirmative, then this competition may have just begun.