Binance Booster Phase 18 sentioxyz｜Is it worth participating?

Conclusion first: Not recommended to participate. The market is sluggish, sometimes not winning is actually lucky.

Task Overview (extremely low difficulty): Task one and task two are social tasks. Task three connects to the Binance wallet, input username to register. Task four involves reading the document, scrolling to the bottom and waiting for 15 seconds.

Reward Analysis: Prize pool of 3 million tokens, 50,000 people winning, an average of 60 tokens per person. Total token supply is 1 billion tokens, new issuance FDV is 20M. Pre-market valuation: Polymarket estimates FDV to be about 60M, with a unit price of about $0.06. Winning value: 60 × $0.06 = 3.6U.

EV Calculation: Why is it negative? Participating in the Booster event requires consuming 5 Alpha points, while the fair value of 5 points is about 10U. Winning only returns 3.6U, and the tokens also have a lock-up period, with no knowledge of when TGE will occur, the actual value received could be lower. Spending 10U worth of points for a return of 3.6U, and with a lock-up period, this is clearly a negative EV activity.

By the way, a suggestion to the Binance wallet team: For this level of Booster activity, please don't deduct everyone's precious points.

My choice: Not participating. The event lasts about 2 weeks and is based on a lottery system rather than first come first served, so it can be observed. Recommended participants: Users who plan to claim the airdrop today and then abandon the project, or users who have already abandoned the project with very low points, can take the low insurance once more.