Bitcoin ($BTC) has recovered 7.45% in the last two days after falling to $62,400 on Tuesday, below a key on-chain price support. Despite the rebound, holders who bought between six months and two years ago remain with an average cost of $74,500, a level that now presents itself as a possible inflection point.
As $BTC rises, the concentration of supply around $74,500 presents itself as a key test for the current trend; a decisive recovery of that level could indicate demand and a shift in the short-term market structure.
Why the $74,500 level is an important level for Bitcoin bulls.
The realized price of Bitcoin tracks the average acquisition cost on-chain for a certain age band of UTXOs. For coins aged 18 to 24 months, that level is close to $64,200.
Cryptocurrency analyst Anıl noted that Bitcoin tested this threshold and reclaimed it at Tuesday's daily close, keeping the zone intact for now.
Realized price support of Bitcoin at $64,200.
Acquisition cost levels act as psychological pivots, and when the price trades below them, investors face unrealized losses, and the risk of distribution increases. A sustained position above the band tends to reduce investor stress and fosters the re-accumulation of $BTC.
Expanding the perspective to UTXOs of $BTC aged six months to two years, it encompasses investors from the consolidation and breakout phases of the previous cycle. The realized price for these cohorts is close to $74,500, which is well above the current price.
Realized price of UTXO and MVRV for $BTC.
The MVRV ratio of the cohort, which compares market value to realized value, now stands at 0.88. A reading below 1 indicates that the group, on average, is at a loss.
When Bitcoin fell below $74,500, investors who bought between six months and two years ago entered unrealized losses, turning that level into an important profitability threshold.
A sustained move back above $74,500 puts a large part of this group back into aggregate profits, which could alleviate selling pressure from holders looking to exit near their breakeven price.
The long-term supply of $BTC reached a 3-month high.
On-chain supply data from CryptoQuant shows that the long-term holders balance is again close to 14 million $BTC (13.96 million) after falling to a multi-year low on November 21, 2025. The recovery of old supply points to continued inactivity of coins despite recent volatility.
Long-term holder flow of Bitcoin.
If investors who bought between six months and 2 years ago choose to hold and absorb selling near their average entry price, the supply found between $74,500 and $100,000 could diminish more rapidly.
A sustained surge above $74,500 could push a large portion of these coins back into the profit zone, potentially shifting the focus toward liquidity near $100,000.
The realized capitalization of $BTC and capital flows remain stable.
A surge in the realized capitalization of $BTC, which measures the added value of coins based on their last on-chain movement price, could also indicate a trend change.
The metric remains close to cycle highs, although its rate of expansion has slowed. The net position change of realized capitalization has compressed toward a neutral level or 0%, indicating that capital inflows are negligible.
Net position change of Bitcoin's realized capitalization (%).
Although the realized capitalization remains near all-time highs, it is showing a downward trend, indicating a slower pace of new capital entering at higher acquisition cost levels.
Historically, the late phases of a bear market tend to show flat or contracting realized capitalization, while early recoveries begin with stabilization before acceleration. A renewed expansion in net position change back toward the 2-4% range could provide clearer confirmation that fresh capital is re-entering and accumulation is increasing.
Which translates to $74,500 or $75,000.
It would be an ideal time for an exponential long.
#BTC走势分析 #Binance #BitcoinDunyamiz
-Dan Pentagram