US–Iran talks end without a deal, but Venezuela supply is helping cap oil’s war premium.

📌 Indirect nuclear talks in Geneva on Feb 26 closed with no agreement, yet both sides backed follow-up technical discussions in Vienna next week, easing immediate conflict fears.

🔎 The key deadlock remains Washington’s demand for Iran to give up uranium enrichment and broaden talks to missiles, while Tehran frames both as sovereignty and deterrence.

⚠️ A 10–15 day window referenced by the White House keeps risk pricing elevated, since any escalation narrative quickly ties back to potential disruption around Hormuz.

⛽ On the other side, Venezuela crude sales under a US-controlled framework are expected to reach about $2B by end-February, roughly ~40M barrels, adding real supply and offsetting Iran risk.

📉 For now, oil looks prone to headline whipsaws, but the near-term bias leans toward balance as markets weigh geopolitics against incremental barrels.

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