1️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily Chart)
🔹 Trend
•The broader structure is still bearish.
•Price remains below the 25MA and 99MA, which signals the macro trend is still down.
•The sharp drop from ~98k to ~60k confirms a strong corrective phase.
•Current move looks like a relief bounce after oversold conditions.
🔹 Moving Averages
•MA(7): ~66,944 → short-term support.
•MA(25): ~68,730 → acting as immediate resistance.
•MA(99): ~84,142 → major macro resistance.
➡️Price is trying to reclaim the 25MA. A daily close above it would be mildly bullish short term.
2️⃣ Indicators
🔹RSI (56)
•Neutral-to-bullish.
•Not overbought.
•Indicates room for continuation upward.
🔹MACD
•Histogram turning positive.
•Bullish momentum is building.
•Possible early trend reversal signal (needs confirmation).
🔹Stoch RSI (72)
•Near overbought.
•Short-term pullback possible before continuation.
🔹Volume
•Recovery happening with moderate volume.
•No explosive accumulation yet.
3️⃣ ETF Flows (Very Important)
•Net inflows: +$257.7M
•Total ETF assets: $146.32B
🔸This is bullish.
➡️Institutional inflows returning while price rebounds from 60k is a strong medium-term signal. Sustained inflows often precede larger moves.
4️⃣ Fear & Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear)
•This is contrarian bullish.
•Extreme fear + rising price + ETF inflows =Often a bottoming environment, not a top.
🔹Historically:
•Extreme fear zones tend to form medium-term bottoms.
•Risk/reward becomes more favorable.
5️⃣Key Levels
🔹Support:
•66,900 (MA7)
•60,000 (major psychological + recent low)
🔹Resistance:
•68,700 (MA25)
•77,000 (structure resistance)
•84,000 (MA99 macro barrier)
6️⃣Scenario Outlook
🐂Bullish Case:
•Hold above 66k
•Break 69k with volume
•Target 77k next
•If ETF inflows continue → possible move toward 84k
🐻Bearish Case:
•Rejection at 69k
•Lose 66k
•Retest 60k zone
👨🏫Overall Assessment
•Short-term: Bullish momentum building
•Medium-term: Still corrective, but stabilizing
•Sentiment: Extremely fearful (contrarian positive)
•Institutional flow: Bullish
⚠️This looks like a potential early-stage recovery, not yet a confirmed trend reversal.