I once seriously considered whether to stop writing. To be honest, compared to racking my brain to write articles every day, working on projects or quietly trading is much more efficient in making money. Especially in this increasingly manipulated and fragmented market, time is capital.
However, after communicating with many fans for a long time during the Spring Festival, I have gained a new understanding of 'writing'. Content is not meant to prove my judgments right, but to help more people establish order amidst the chaos. The market can fluctuate repeatedly, but human nature is forever cyclical.
Yesterday, BTC surged by 7000 points in a single day, with a maximum increase close to 10%. It is the strongest emotional recovery since the large drop at the beginning of this month. The entire crypto market has simultaneously experienced a highly concentrated rebound from overselling, with the major assets moving first and altcoins following, a typical emotion-driven rebound.
Here comes the question: Has the market stopped declining?
If you only look at the candlesticks, you would easily be swayed by this bullish candlestick. But trading is not about looking at one line, but about looking at the structure.
The previous level of 94,000 points was broken without obstruction, indicating that the weekly trend has shown structural damage; the breach of 68,000 points essentially declares the start of a new round of main declining wave. Since then, the nature of the market has shifted from 'high position correction' to 'cyclical decline.' Before the key retracement level of 0.618, which is around 76,000 points, is effectively broken, discussing reversal belongs to emotional overspending.
The essence of this adjustment that began above 120,000 USD is not complicated. The end of the interest rate cut cycle has caused the liquidity expectations in the risk market to collapse. As liquidity recedes, valuations naturally revert. The crypto market has never been priced based on fundamentals but relies on expectations and liquidity premiums to maintain high levels.
So what was the logic behind yesterday's surge?
First, the strength of NASDAQ. The warming sentiment in tech stocks reflects on risk assets.
Secondly, NVIDIA's Q4 earnings report exceeded expectations, reinforcing the AI narrative, and the risk appetite has clearly risen.
Third, the discussion about Jane Street creating 'fake supply' in the derivatives market affecting Bitcoin pricing has developed, leading the market to form a consensus: Bitcoin is undervalued.
Thus, we see emotions quickly warming up, rather than structural funds entering the market.
What truly determines the long-term price trend is never just one or two news articles, nor just one or two bullish candlesticks. What determines value is sustained, active, and aggressive hot money — that is liquidity.
Yesterday, the net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was 507 million USD, and the net inflow of ETH spot ETFs was 157 million USD. This volume is not small, but if it cannot form continuity, it can only be considered 'repair' and not a 'counterattack.'
So back to that question: Has the short-term decline stopped?
My answer remains: No.
What is seen now is emotional recovery, not a trend reversal. The market structure still leans bearish, and liquidity has not formed a sustained increase. I still tend to believe that the true phase low will appear around the end of March.
In March, the continued pause on interest rate cuts has been fully priced in by traders. After the last round of bearish policy was realized, market expectations will begin to shift towards May. At that time, the policy outlook after the new chairman takes office will become the new focus of contention. It is well known that Trump's most core demand at present is a stronger interest rate cut, which is also his most direct policy expectation of the new chairman.
Once the policy expectations realign towards easing, the liquidity expectations will truly be restored. Only then will there be a possibility for a structural rebirth in the market.
Reflecting on 2025, losing money is actually the norm, not the exception. The wealth creation effect in the crypto market is rarely weaker than that of the A-shares, and it even lags behind precious metals, let alone the consistently strong US stocks.
This is not a matter of ability, but a matter of cycles.
What is truly difficult is not judging whether a candlestick goes up or down, but maintaining positions, rhythm, and confidence in the face of adverse trends.
Writing this, I am even more determined to continue updating my decisions. The market will oscillate repeatedly, but the accumulation of understanding is one-way. The market commands respect, while cycles teach maturity.
Back to the market:
Bitcoin: Over the past six months, every strong rebound has ultimately ended at a new low, and it is expected that this time will not be an exception. The four-hour level low has rebounded to a maximum position of 69,988 points, just a step away from 70,000 USD. The trend resistance level is currently between 72,000 and 74,000 points. Under the premise that the main force does not rush to leave, I believe there is a high probability for Bitcoin to rebound to around 72,000 points before starting a new round of decline. From an operational perspective, partners who have already filled their positions at 68,000 points can take profits in small intervals and then wait to replenish below the 60,000 low, forming a new average cost range. In short, do not chase high at this position; engaging in short selling in this pressure range is quite comfortable in terms of cost-effectiveness.
Ethereum: Following Bitcoin, the daily level pressure point of 2200 is hard to touch, while the four-hour level pressure point of 2090 can be observed for volume status if it moves upwards again.