The market looks depressed. But the numbers give a more complex picture.
📉 DCA is again below $100,000
It seems that everyone who invested in BTC using the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy daily is now below the $100,000 mark.
Even those who started at the historical peak.
What does this mean?
If BTC returns above $100,000 — the entire cohort of DCA investors will be profitable again.
This creates a psychological level of recovery.
🧠 Sentiments are extremely depressed
One of the analysts noted:
in 10.5 years in the crypto industry, he has not seen such weak price dynamics and such depressed sentiment.
Extreme negativity historically coincides with late phases of correction.
But it itself is not a trigger for growth.
💳 Consumer stress
Currently, 12.7% of credit card loans are in serious delinquency (90+ days).
This is the second largest indicator in history.
It was only higher after the global financial crisis of 2008.
Increase in delinquencies =
decrease in purchasing power + pressure on the consumer sector.
This is negative for risk assets in the short term.
💵 Liquidity is increasing
At the same time, the global money supply is accelerating:
+18.6% YoY in the first two months of 2026.
Historically, the growth of global liquidity is fundamental support for BTC.
But the effect manifests with a lag of several months.
📊 Balance of factors
Now we see:
— extremely weak sentiment
— DCA below the key psychological level
— high consumer stress
— acceleration of the money supply
This is a classic phase of macro-dissonance.
In the short term, pressure may persist due to a weak economy.
In the medium term, the growth of liquidity creates a foundation for recovery.
The key trigger is the return of sustainable demand and stabilization of the macro environment.
So far, this is a zone of increased volatility and psychological overload of the market.
