$BTC
#比特币挖矿难度上升 Behind the 15% Surge in Mining Difficulty: Miner Surrender is Just the Beginning, the Real Selling Pressure is Yet to Come
While the network hashrate appears to have recovered, the hash price has hit a multi-year low, and the vicious cycle of miners being forced to sell has only just begun.
The Bitcoin network has just completed a historic difficulty adjustment, with the mining difficulty increasing to 144.4 T, a 15% increase, marking the largest percentage increase since 2021. On the surface, this is a sign of network health—the network hashrate has quickly rebounded to 1 ZH/s. However, deeper analysis reveals a structural crisis in the market.
Miner Profitability Has Hit Rock Bottom
The current hash price is at a multi-decade low of 23.9 PH/s. This means that despite the increased difficulty and recovered hashrate, the profitability per unit of hashrate remains weak. More importantly, with Bitcoin priced at around $67,000 and the average mining cost at around $87,000, miners are losing about 27% on every Bitcoin they mine.
This isn't a simple technical adjustment; it's a survival crisis.
Some listed mining companies have begun shifting their energy and computing power to AI and high-performance computing data centers. Bitfarms announced a name change to downplay its Bitcoin identity, and activist investor Starboard urged Riot Platforms to further expand its AI data center business. This transformation could permanently alter the distribution of Bitcoin's computing power.
The market structure has fundamentally changed.
Historical experience has failed: Bitcoin's drop of over 50% has not been followed by a rebound of at least 40%. Even more unusual is the lack of a significant increase in Bitcoin's market share; funds haven't flowed back into this "relatively safe" asset. This indicates that the participant structure, funding sources, and game theory logic have all changed.
The real selling pressure has not yet been released.
A large number of put positions in the options market are concentrated in the $50,000 to $60,000 range, with traders heavily betting on a second dip. ETFs are experiencing continuous net outflows, and institutional allocation demand has reversed. To maintain cash flow, miners may be forced to continue selling off their Bitcoin holdings.
The conclusion is harsh:
The significant increase in mining difficulty is not a signal of a bull market, but rather an alarm bell for accelerated industry consolidation. For marginal miners, this means further shrinking profit margins; for the market, it means continued selling pressure. The true bottom is far from being reached.How long do you think this massive sell-off by miners will last? Or will new funds enter the market to take over?