🔴The core PCE index is back at 3%! GDP has sharply dropped to 1.4%, adding to the uncertainty about the prospect of interest rate cuts.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the core PCE index has increased to 3% compared to the same period last year, the highest in nearly a year, indicating that inflationary pressures are re-emerging. GDP in the fourth quarter grew at an annual rate of only 1.4%, significantly lower than the previous quarter. The government shutdown has reduced growth by about 1 percentage point. The market is still betting on interest rate cuts in June, but re-emerging inflation is complicating the Federal Reserve's policy path.
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