New projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show that the US federal debt will reach $64 trillion in the next decade. This debt, which is unprecedented in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) since World War II, has caused widespread concern in global markets. While the value of the dollar has been pressured by new economic policies, analysts believe that this situation could be a powerful driver for the growth of scarce assets, including Bitcoin.
Continued budget deficits and high interest costs
According to CBO data, the federal budget deficit is expected to increase from $1.9 trillion in 2026 to $3.1 trillion by 2036.This has pushed the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 120%, well above its post-World War II peak. For investors, the main issue is not just the size of the debt, but the cost of servicing it; annual net interest payments on this debt are projected to reach $2.1 trillion by the mid-2030s.
Bitcoin's Role in a Financial Suppression Scenario
Analysts believe that if the bond market demands higher interest rates to attract a massive supply of Treasuries, the government may resort to "fiscal repression" policies. These policies involve keeping interest rates below inflation to reduce the debt burden, an environment that traditionally makes hard assets shine.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, due to its limited supply, is seen as a means of preserving capital value against the decline in the purchasing power of fiat money (debasement). The dollar's shaky position and rising demand for gold
While the dollar's share of global reserves is slowly declining (56.92% by the end of 2025), central banks have bought 863 tons of gold in the past year, indicating a desire for structural diversification. On the other hand, the growth of the stablecoin market has been able to create limited demand for short-term bonds, but this cannot solve the long-term credit crisis of the dollar. In this situation, Bitcoin has emerged not as an immediate alternative to the dollar, but as a hedge against uncertainty in the future rules of the world's currency.
