EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Critical 0.8700 Break Tests Bullish Resolve Amid Shifting Tides

LONDON, March 2025 – The EUR/GBP cross has decisively broken below the psychologically significant 0.8700 handle, a move that technical analysts flag as a potential watershed moment for the currency pair’s near-term trajectory. This decline signals a notable loss of steam for the bulls who had previously supported the rate. Consequently, market participants are now scrutinizing charts and fundamental drivers to gauge whether this represents a healthy correction or the beginning of a more profound bearish phase. The interplay between European Central Bank and Bank of England policy paths remains the dominant narrative shaping this critical forex pair.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Decoding the Technical Breakdown

Technical analysis provides the initial framework for understanding the move below 0.8700. The level had acted as a confluence zone, combining the 100-day simple moving average and a horizontal support area established throughout Q4 2024. A sustained close below this zone, confirmed over several daily sessions, invalidates the prior consolidation structure. Furthermore, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have retreated from overbought territory above 70, recorded in late February, and are now trending toward neutral. This shift suggests buying pressure has materially dissipated. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows fading bullish momentum, with its signal line threatening a bearish crossover. Volume profile analysis also indicates the break occurred on above-average trading volume, lending credence to its significance. Traders often view such a high-volume break of a key level as a valid signal, not merely market noise.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

The immediate focus now shifts to subsequent support zones. The next significant technical floor resides near the 0.8620-0.8640 region, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the November 2024 to February 2025.