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Crypto and stock markets are heading into a heavy macro week, with key data like CPI, PCE, Fed minutes, Retail Sales, and multiple Fed speakers set to test rate-cut expectations after mixed inflation signals and rising geopolitical tensions.

Last week’s January CPI came in slightly below expectations:

• Headline inflation: 2.38% YoY

• Core CPI: 2.5% YoY (lowest since early 2021)

Markets initially reacted positively, pushing stocks and crypto higher on Friday — but weekend price action erased most crypto gains.

📅 This Week’s Key Events:

• Tuesday: ADP Employment + Retail Sales

• Wednesday: Durable Goods Orders + Fed Minutes + 10 Fed Speakers

• Later this week: PCE Inflation Report (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)

Goldman Sachs has already raised its core PCE forecast to +0.40%, citing rising consumer electronics and IT prices. A global shortage of RAM and storage components — fueled by AI data center demand — is pushing tech prices higher, which weighs more heavily in PCE calculations than CPI.

📊 The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 90% probability of no rate change in March, meaning markets are highly sensitive to any surprise in inflation data.

Meanwhile:

• Total crypto market cap has declined

• $BTC remains range-bound after retreating from recent highs

• $ETH has dropped sharply

• Altcoins continue bleeding

The Kobeissi Letter warns that macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions remain elevated — suggesting volatility may stay high throughout the week.

⚠️ This is a data-driven week. Expect sharp moves around releases.

#CPIWatch #CryptoMarkets #BTC #ETH