During this round of gold price pullback, many people have started to panic, but it is precisely in such times that one needs to calm down and observe the structure. Here's a simple overview of several cycles' signals, hoping it helps with your timing.
1. Daily: The trend is still present, there's no need to scare yourself.
The long-term trend is still bullish, with the previous high of 5598 being the peak of the main upward wave. Currently, we are in a phase of consolidation after a high-level pullback. MA30 is still trending upwards, indicating that the long-term trend has not deteriorated; do not hastily declare the market is over.
2. 4-hour: Entering the box, direction is about to become clear
The 4-hour chart has formed a standard box consolidation, and now MA5 has started to turn upwards while MA10 is flat. This combination usually means that the market is brewing a directional choice, and a result is likely to emerge in the next couple of days.
Three, 1 hour: Short cycle has strengthened
The 1-hour chart has formed a V-shaped rebound, with lows gradually rising, and MACD has also shown a golden cross with volume. From a short-term perspective, the bulls have regained the initiative, as long as the key support is not broken, the rebound structure is still in place.
Four, key pressure zone: 5080–5120
The significance of this position is very heavy - it is both a densely trapped area of previous chips and a range that institutions like to use for washing positions. If it is held down here, the market will continue to grind within the box, or even test the lower support; if it breaks out with volume, it marks a new beginning.
Five, probability judgment
Based on multiple timeframes, the probability of an upward breakout is relatively high, currently around 60%.
Six, two response ideas
Plan One: Follow the breakout
Trigger condition: 1-hour close stands firm at 5120
Stop loss: 5030
Target: 5200 → 5350 → 5500
Plan Two: Buy on dips
If the breakout fails, and it falls back to the 4950–5000 area, consider building positions in batches.
Stop loss: 4850
Seven, the most taboo operations at present
Chase the rise near 5050. This position happens to be the top of the box, and chasing in easily leads to being 'closed off' by institutions. Be patient, opportunities come from waiting, not from chasing.
Eight, what to do if it goes bad?
If the market falls below 4850, one needs to be alert for deeper retracement, the lower level may test the 4600 area. By then, reassessing the structure won't be too late.
Nine, rhythm prediction
This pattern is historically common before the main rising wave starts with sideways consolidation. The usual rhythm is: first grind for a while, until you lose patience, then suddenly break out with volume, followed by acceleration. Don’t fall before dawn.