BTC Trend Analysis and the cryptocurrency market as a whole 14.02.2026
On Valentine's Day, I wish all couples much happiness and health to continue fighting, everyone.
Today I will analyze macroeconomic and technical news.
1. Technical analysis
EMA20 is below, but the price is trying to break through
• MACD turning green
• RSI rising to the range of 55–65
• StochRSI near overbought
EMA50 – EMA100 – EMA200 in decline
• Price still below EMA50 4H
👉 That is:
This is a technical correction wave, the new uptrend has not yet been confirmed, but it has already entered the correction phase.
🟡 risk reduction assessment:
If it closes 4H above 72k with high volume
→ It may rise to 76–78k
The 78k range is a very strong resistance, high probability of extreme fluctuations.
If it closes 4h rejecting the 72k range →→ Return to test 64–66k
2. Macroeconomic news
Like the 2 posts I analyzed in detail on FB about BTCVN4, the fact that the US signed a trade agreement with Taiwan and Russia is starting to use USD again shows that, before the midterm elections, Trump may yield and loosen policy.
Before the election → the government tends to stabilize the economy, the market improves.
In US history:
• The period before the election generally limits shock creation
• Softer fiscal policy
• Avoid large volatilities
If Trump (or Trump's supporters) signal loosening:
• The US stock market will benefit first
• Then the money flow will spread to crypto
Good luck to everyone.