Good weekend everyone. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September 16th-17th FOMC meeting is in the high 85% to 90% range. Trading systems and futures curves have already priced in the certainty of an easing policy. The US Treasury's public statements and the support of some Fed officials have further increased pressure for a rate cut.

Against this backdrop, with a liquidity inflection point approaching, easing policies will become the core driver of the rise in mainstream assets.

Crypto Market Status: Bitcoin and Ethereum have completed their corrections, and their current prices are within a reasonable medium- to long-term range, with selling pressure fully absorbed.

ETH offers greater resilience, benefiting from the advancement of Ethereum ETFs, the booming second-layer network applications, and institutional investors' increased investment. Fund flows show that traditional funds are more inclined to increase their holdings in Ethereum, far exceeding small-cap tokens, with risk appetite concentrated in leading assets.

Recommended Trading Range and Position Management

It is recommended to build a position in Ethereum in batches between 3900 and 4450:

3900 to 4100: Buy a core position.

4100 to 4300: Add to a medium position. 4300 to 4450: Cover tail positions and wait for a breakout.

The recommended range for Bitcoin is 108,000 to 115,000, making it more suitable for anchoring funds and hedging. Regarding risk management, build positions in batches to avoid chasing highs. Keep your total position size between 40% and 60% of your liquidity, leaving room for volatility.

European and American institutions primarily employ a combination of "buy on dips" and momentum breakouts, while European quantitative funds emphasize cross-asset arbitrage and hedging.

Among Asian funds, Korean and Japanese traders prefer short-term, high-frequency trading and leveraged contracts; Singaporean and Middle Eastern funds prefer value-locking, buying large amounts of mainstream assets during pullbacks.

Overall strategy recommendation: