Q1 2026 will be the moment when the last remaining illusion officially shatters for $ENA holders.
1/30, Echelon announced the tokenomics of ELON.
2/8, Based announced the tokenomics of BASED.
These two 'ecological airdrops' compose the final chapter of ENA.
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Lock-up, linear release, the airdrop profits are visible but unattainable.
Deriving the experience of DRV may serve as a cautionary tale?
Now Echelon and Based have stricter lock-up restrictions for sENA stakers:
sENA stakers can claim the airdrop ten days after the Echelon ELON launch, and only 0.5% (5% allocated to sENA) is available; the remaining tokens will have to wait for quarterly unlocks over the next 12 months.
sENA stakers in Based are in an even more humble position, unlocking only 20% (6.67% per month) in the first 3 months, 40% after 12 months, and the final 40% will unlock linearly in months 13 to 18.
In contrast to the immediate unlocking for Echelon and Based native users, sENA stakers are like second-class citizens; by the time they receive the tokens, the price has already collapsed.
The opening price of Echelon ELON on 2/2 was 0.85, and it has now fallen to 0.29.
Note: Although ELON has gone live on Binance Alpha (BNB Chain), most of the liquidity remains on Aptos.
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sENA stakers find themselves in an ambiguous position, caught between native users and investment institutions.
If I remember correctly, Ethena obtained token quotas from Echelon and Based through investment & cooperation.
But clearly, in this so-called 'ecosystem agreement,' sENA stakers belong neither to its native users nor to investment institutions.
sENA stakers are ironically in the most awkward position, unable to gain the purchasing advantage of lower valuations like institutional investors, nor can they cash out immediately like native users.
In other words, this portion of airdrop for sENA stakers is like meat for slaughter, with no choice, and possibly not worth much.
But unfortunately, the ENA in the hands of sENA stakers has already experienced a significant decline in token value.
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The narrative of sENA has collapsed, and ENA has fallen into the realm of ordinary mining coins.
For a long time, Ethena relied on the 'sENA ecosystem airdrop' to encourage users to lock their assets. However, in the past year, aside from the decreasing appeal of Ethena's own ENA airdrop, the illusion of the sENA ecosystem airdrop has been punctured, and ENA has almost no positive benefits, which helps explain the downward trend of the token.
Perhaps some still hold the illusion of a 'fee switch,' but frankly, when Terminal revealed that Ethena had long ceased development work on Converge without informing the community, all of Ethena's past promises now raise a big question mark.
Rather than betting on a nebulous promise being fulfilled, it might be better to simply watch how Arthur Hayes manages his ENA.
Information asymmetry is itself the biggest characteristic of the cryptocurrency market, so let go of your obsessions!
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※ The above content does not constitute investment advice (NFA). Users should operate according to their own risk tolerance and participate in the investment market with caution, DYOR.
※ The attached image is sourced from CoinGecko, Rootdata.