It seems that 2026 has decided not just to 'start a new chapter', but to simply burn the previous book.
Because it simultaneously covers everything: the dollar, the global financial system, world politics, trust in institutions.
And analysts are already talking about this everywhere. Although we know those analysts, they like to talk and scare.
1. The dollar could collapse by 10% — and this is just warming up
Analysts from State Street, managing $5.7 trillion, are warning directly:
the dollar may drop by 10% in 2026.
The reasons are transparent, like the tears of an investor in a drawdown:
● the market has priced in 2 rate cuts,
● experts allow for all 3,
● in May, Kevin Warsh, Trump's buddy, takes the Fed chair,
● and he may start cutting rates even more aggressively.
And if the Fed starts 'devaluing the dollar' — foreign investors start selling it.
The USA will start to devalue its currency — because there is no other way out.
2. But the problem is not with the dollar. The problem is with the entire fiat system
Here comes Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, bringing his always cheerful concepts about the end of yet another historical cycle.
He emphasizes:
● The world is entering a zone where three orders are collapsing simultaneously:
○ monetary — fiat is swollen with debt, there is no trust;
○ domestic — polarization and populism;
○ geopolitical — countries no longer trust each other.
3. Fiat no longer works as a store of wealth
Main symptoms:
● governments around the world are up to their ears in debt;
● servicing debt consumes economic growth;
● there is no good exit: either defaults or the printing press;
● historically everyone printed.
Therefore, trust in fiat is falling. This is a macro-story that has repeated for centuries.
4. Gold is not just rising — it is returning to the role of the main 'anti-idiot' asset
Central banks are buying gold as if it will be banned tomorrow. Why?
● gold — has no obligations;
● it cannot be frozen by sanctions;
● it saves during currency weakening;
● 5-15% gold in the portfolio — the new norm for markets that have lost trust in fiat.
It has already surpassed the tech sector in 2025. Yes, even the big AI champions.
5. The USA is in a crisis phase: strong but degrading
According to Dalio's model — this is already Stage 5 out of 6.
What does this mean?
● the state still dominates,
● but internally it is breaking;
● debts are rising,
● society is divided,
● politics is entering a 'win or die' mode,
● institutions have lost trust.
This is already almost the final phase before the system will require painful restructuring or forced reorganization.
6. Capital flees to hard assets
Main signs:
● long-term rates are rising,
● no one wants government bonds in the volumes the USA is printing,
● central banks have to buy back their own debt,
● currencies are weakening,
● and capital is fleeing to gold, BTC, real estate, assets with limited issuance.
The world has not seen a struggle for trust and liquidity of this magnitude for decades.
7. The big cycle is entering a dark phase
Signs of Stage 6:
● explosion of populism,
● destruction of institutions,
● conflicts are moving from political talk shows to the real world,
● money is devalued,
● assets force sales,
● wealth 'evaporates' even before prices fall.
Ray Dalio warns:
'Ahead are either very painful reforms or a very painful crisis scenario.' There is no third option.
Let's summarize the 'big experts'
The dollar could fall by 10% — that's a trifle.
Because the world is entering a phase where the very architecture of global money is breaking.
This is not a 'temporary instability.'
This is the final act of the old economic model, which is cracking under the weight of debts, politics, and geopolitics.
And while some panic, others are calmly collecting hard assets —
after all, according to the Great Cycle model, they are experiencing breakthrough epochs.