$BTC , in April 2013, Mt. Gox was attacked, and Bitcoin fell from $265 to $150, a decline of about 43%, due to security vulnerabilities at the exchange; from December 2017 to December 2018, it dropped from nearly $20,000 to $3,122, a decline of about 84%, due to a bubble burst and tightening regulations; in March 2020, during the COVID liquidity crisis, it fell from about $9,100 to $3,782, a decline of over 50%, due to global panic selling; on May 19, 2021, it fell from $64,000 to $29,000, a single-day decline of about 34%, due to domestic regulations and Musk pausing payments; in 2022, LUNA/FTX collapsed, falling from $69,000 to $15,000, a decline of about 78%, due to institutional credit collapse; in October 2025, it flash crashed from a high of $126,000 with a single-day decline of over 17%, and in February 2026, it fell below $60,000, with a cumulative decline of about 52%, due to tightening liquidity, regulatory uncertainty, and leveraged liquidations; based on historical patterns and the current environment, Bitcoin will likely continue to experience extreme volatility of **20%-50%** due to macro interest rates, regulatory policies, exchange risks, and leveraged liquidations, with a high probability of a deep correction after a bull market, and a bottoming cycle of about 9-18 months, while institutionalization may reduce extreme declines but cannot eliminate black swan events.\n In the future, Bitcoin will still face a 20%-50% level of black swan-style crashes due to four major factors: Federal Reserve interest rates, global regulations, exchange risks, and leveraged liquidations, with a high probability of a deep correction of 9-18 months after a bull market, and institutionalization will reduce extreme volatility but cannot completely avoid large declines. #美国伊朗对峙

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