Every day, I ask myself these five questions in the same way.
Not to predict the price, but to confirm something more important—
Has the market really 'died' once?
The first thing is the price itself.
Has it already fallen to a point where technical analysis starts to look awkward?
When support levels fail one by one, and those who draw lines no longer persist, the rebound no longer excites anyone, bringing only a brief respite, it usually indicates that the price is no longer willing to cooperate with any rational model.
And the true bottom almost never respects technicals.
The second thing is the emotional intensity during the decline.
If a clear drop occurs and the market's reaction is just 'it dropped again' instead of 'this time it's over', it indicates that panic is still far from enough.
A drop close to the bottom is often emotional, making people want to close the trading software and escape the market.
The third thing is the change in language.
When the discussion shifts from 'Will it bounce back?' 'Is it an opportunity?' to 'This thing has no value to begin with', it is no longer a technical debate, but a sign that belief is beginning to waver.
Historically, every phase bottom has been accompanied by this narrative denial.
The fourth thing is whether the storyteller is still around.
If they are still drawing, still explaining, still repeatedly emphasizing 'long-term logic', it indicates that the market has not really cooled down yet.
The true bottom often waits not for the price to appear, but for the storytellers to collectively fall silent.
The fifth thing, and the most crucial one, is my own state.
Am I already too lazy to judge?
It's not fear, it's not anger, but boredom. Too lazy to analyze, too lazy to prove myself, even too lazy to care about right or wrong.
Bitcoin's phase bottom often appears during this emotional vacuum period, rather than when it's the loudest.
If only one or two of these five things occur, it is still just a normal adjustment.
If most have already happened, it at least indicates one thing—
The market has already paid enough emotional cost for mispricing.
The bottom is never an exact point, but a state.
When you are no longer in a hurry to participate, it instead begins to be worth a second look.
Reverse reminder:
Getting close to the bottom does not mean one can enter at will.
Many times, the market will repeatedly test lower at a position that 'seems already bad enough'.
Judging that we are close to the bottom is to avoid emotional decision-making, not to prove oneself ahead of the market.
——
This is merely personal reflection and does not constitute any investment advice.